Market Reports

The dairy markets are adjusting to the post-Christmas routine. Traders are back at their desks, and milk bottlers are running full throttle. In addition to the typical post-holiday school milk and grocery case restocks, bottlers are rushing to resupply in the wake of a snowstorm that sent southerners scrambling for milk and eggs.

Most parts of the country report that milk production is improving, facilitated by mostly mild winter conditions. However, with more frigid temperatures forecast for the coming days and weeks, inclement weather could have a negative impact on the sector. Production in California continues to struggle under the weight of animal health issues though slower processing schedules during the holiday season have eased tensions in the state.

In November, as roughly one in four California dairies struggled with avian influenza, the state’s milk production plummeted 9.2% from a year ago, the largest-ever decline in a century of USDA records.

Class III futures bounced back bigtime this week, led by another strong performance in the whey market. CME spot whey powder rallied 8.25ȼ, notching a 12% increase in just five sessions. Whey protein concentrate prices continue to climb, evidence of nearly insatiable domestic demand for protein.

The dairy markets had a lot of data to digest along with their turkey. While Americans topped their mashed potatoes and slathered their rolls with butter, dairy analysts chewed on data showing October butter output and inventories well above year-ago levels.

Never doubt the power of the profit motive in a free market. In the face of a devastating virus and a systemic heifer shortage, American dairy producers nevertheless found a way to add cows and boost milk production.

Soaring temperatures, summer shortages, and sky-high prices are out of season as the cheese and butter markets hunker down for the winter. So far, pre-holiday demand has not impressed. Demand is simply not keeping pace with current production.

CME spot Cheddar blocks plummeted 11.75ȼ and closed at $1.72 per pound, their lowest price since April. Barrels lost a dime and finished at $1.7675, also a six-month low.

Last week’s Cold Storage report showed an impressive decline in cheese stocks from March to September. That implies excellent demand for U.S. cheese, driven by spectacular exports. The trade is left to assume that cheese output will step upward several times over the next few months as new and expanded plants start making product.

Dairy market analysts got a surprise this week when USDA released its Milk Production report on Monday with stronger than expected results. But perhaps even more unexpectedly, the agency revised the August figure from a modest loss to a 0.4% increase.