Market Reports

Recent moves and counter moves in international trade have everyone nervous about how new tariffs announced by the Chinese and American governments will affect their ability to do profitable business in a global economy. Dairy is no exception. But an examination of what key players are actually doing will show that threatening rhetoric may not reflect reality.

Last month, we reported on increased interest in American cheeses from buyers abroad. It led us to believe there is potential for some good to come out of several months in a row of bad news for dairy markets. This month, we’re taking stock of the situation as the peak of the spring flush nears.

Domestic supply remains somewhat long, prices remain depressed, demand remains weak and American dairy farmers are seeing month after month of lackluster milk checks. But one market segment —U.S. cheese exports— is showing signs of strength.

Dairy markets in the U.S. are still stagnant. And, as we’ve reported for many months now, part of the problem is there’s just too much milk flooding the market. But there’s a demand problem, too, and demand problems are much harder to solve. That’s especially true when the economy is strong, like it is now.

There are plenty of reasons why dairy markets in the U.S. remain sluggish, but it’s partly due to the European Commission's decision to lift milk production quotas that had been in place for EU member states since 1984. It wasn’t clear how much more milk would flood the market, but Europe is the largest milkshed in the world. There was bound to be an impact.

Without a doubt, the American dairy industry has benefited greatly since NAFTA became effective in 1994. In fact, agriculture in the U.S. has been the biggest beneficiary of the deal. But President Donald Trump’s pledge to renegotiate NAFTA shortly after he took office put its future in sudden limbo.