
The Latest: July - 2025
U.S. and China Relationship Remains Precarious
U.S. dairy trade data for May was released, showing mixed performance. U.S. dairy exports to China plummeted during the month, reflecting the intensifying trade conflict between the two countries. Low protein whey products were the most affected as the dramatic drop in Chinese demand caused year over year U.S. exports of dry whey, modified whey, and whey protein concentrates with protein levels under 80% to fall by 19.9%, 16.5%, and 35.6%, respectively.
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Fresh cheese is tight, and the markets seem to have someone – or several someones – over a barrel. High prices are working to trim demand at the margins, boost production, and attract imports.
View reportJudgment is further clouded by stupefying volatility and a sense of déjà vu. Sky-high cheese prices are simply difficult to sustain.
View reportThe bulls are still bruised after getting walloped in mid-September, when spot cheese staged an invigorating climb followed by a dramatic collapse.
View reportThe fundamentals of the milk powder market seem particularly healthy, and the bulls are roaming free.
View reportAfter much volatility, the boundaries are becoming clearer. The spread between blocks and barrels narrowed, adding another layer of uncertainty to the already complex cheese markets.
View reportAfter rocketing higher last week, CME spot Cheddar blocks continued to soar. But, the cheese markets are likely to remain volatile.
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