The Latest: November - 2025
Markets Swinging Wildly Because of Politics and Anxiety
The commodity markets swung wildly back and forth this week, buffeted this way and that by politics and anxiety. While the U.S. economy continues to expand, growth is uneven. Lower-income consumers are struggling, and many middle-class Americans are watching their budgets more closely. They’re dining out less and seeking bargains when they do. Many shoppers are trading down to store brands or switching to discount retailers. This week, the Trump administration and a federal judge sparred over the timing and amount of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits the government will fund during the partial shutdown, leaving the 43 million Americans who receive SNAP benefits in limbo.
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Like the mercury in Phoenix, the dairy markets just kept climbing this week, and the heat wave began in the most unlikely of places. CME spot Cheddar staged a torrid rally on Thursday and blazed higher on Friday as well.
View reportThe dairy markets bounced off the bottom this week, hinting that prices may have finally fallen far enough to stimulate demand. They are certainly low enough to begin reducing supplies. Every day, more dairy producers succumb to the tidal wave of red ink that is swamping the industry. In the week ending July 1, dairy producers sent 59,332 cows to slaughter, the highest late-June head count since 2009.
View reportDairy commodity prices continue to flounder under the pressure of plentiful supplies and, in turn, are weighing on milk prices.
View reportDespite falling milk prices and tightening margins, milk supplies remain ample in most parts of the country. Elevated summer temperatures and humidity are starting to weigh on cow comfort and negatively impact output, but only in parts of the nation.
View reportThe Midwest region has been overwhelmed with excess milk since December, and producers are paying for it in the form of steep discounts on spot milk, bigger freight deductions, and – in the worst instances – dumped milk.
View reportThe long-awaited rains have disappointed so far. A weekend drizzle and sporadic showers over the past few days have not added up to much, and soils are parched in the Corn Belt. USDA estimates that 57% of U.S. corn production is currently struggling through drought.
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